Fehr & Peers is assisting a team with a Line-by-Line Analysis for the City of Culver City. Fehr & Peers is conducting travel market analysis and ridership forecasting for the project. The travel market analysis incorporates both Big Data and the regional travel model. The ridership forecasting analysis uses a direct ridership forecasting approach.
First, Big Data, in the form of cell phone data purchased from StreetLight Data, is being used to identify travel markets for key destination zones. Nine potential destination zones were identified in collaboration with Culver City. These mainly included busy activity centers such as universities and commercial districts. For each destination zone, cell phone data was used to identify the market for trips traveling to that area, therefore identifying areas with a high potential for travel between those areas and the destination zone. This information will help Culver CityBus decide whether there is potential to provide transit service to each destination zone.
Next, the regional travel model is being used to identify the largest travel markets across the Culver CityBus territory and identify potentially un-served or under-served markets. The analysis divides the region into zones and analyzes the relative level of travel between zone pairs in order to identify the zone pairs within Culver CityBus territory with the highest demand for travel. This analysis is expected to help inform new transit corridors that could target an untapped market, as well as provide data to help refine existing service patterns to better target time of day of certain trip patterns.
The travel market analysis informs the line-by-line analysis, which will result in a Comprehensive Service Plan, describing service implementation and revisions to the current Culver CityBus system for the next several years. Fehr & Peers will conduct ridership forecasts for three near- and medium-term and one long-term route network and service plan scenarios. The forecasts will be developed using a direct ridership forecasting approach, which will use existing Culver CityBus data to evaluate the influence of local station area and transit system characteristics on ridership. This will allow the project team to evaluate how changes to routing and service levels associated with the proposed system revisions will impact Culver CityBus ridership.